By Greg Smith on Monday, August 13th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – GDP Bounces Back Second quarter GDP was the main piece of data for the UK last week. GDP showed a rebound to 0.4% for the quarter reflecting rises in industrial production and construction. Services were more of a concern showing no growth, with exports also falling over 3.5%. Sterling fell against the USD […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, August 6th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling struggles after rate hike Last week, the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5%. The BoE also slightly increased its inflation forecast. The committee suggested that further modest rate increases were likely, dependent upon Brexit outcomes. There was new guidance around the ‘neutral’ interest rate which it put at […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 30th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – BoE rate hike expected In a busy week in the UK, the Bank of England will decide on an interest rate hike in addition to providing updated economic forecasts and guidance on ‘neutral’ interest rates. We expect the MPC to agree on a rate hike of 0.25%, for the second time in nine […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 23rd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling slides on weak data It was a challenging week for UK data and politics as sterling slides to recent lows against the dollar and euro. The depreciation was a reaction to weaker than expected data and uncertainty around Brexit. Inflation for June was well below forecasts at 2.4% whilst retail sales […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 16th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Turbulent politics remain Despite a turbulent week in politics, the UK outlook appears relatively positive. The UK monthly GDP released last week showed positive momentum growing. We also expect to see positive UK labour market data and retail sales this week which will further bolster the picture of second-quarter growth. We also expect […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 9th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Stronger PMIs, weakened May Last week saw all of the June PMI surveys better than market expectations. The composite PMI showed strong growth at 55.2. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Carney said that he is more confident that the first quarter GDP growth slowdown was temporary and that the economy is evolving as […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 2nd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – PMIs and PM May’s meeting Data continued to point to a robust economy with first quarter GDP revised up to 0.2% following stronger construction numbers along with stronger manufacturing PMI. Bank of England economist, Andy Haldane highlighted pay growth as key in his decision to vote for a rate hike. With this in […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 25th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Hawkish shift from MPC At the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, there was an unexpectedly hawkish shift in voting policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates at 0.5% which was a surprise for the markets (7-2 last month). The fact that it was the Bank’s Chief Economist, […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 18th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – MPC likely no change The recent data has been worse than expected for the UK. Last week, industrial production fell and construction output was weaker. Inflation was steady at 2.4% and retail sales increased by 1.3%, though this is unlikely to be enough to move the Monetary Policy into action – MPC likely […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 11th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Key votes on EU withdrawal bill On the political side, there are key votes on EU withdrawal bill as MPs meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Theresa May plans to overturn amendments made by the House of Lords. There are two controversial amendments that give the most concern to the government. The first instructs the […]
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