August UK GDP is expected to bounce back to growth

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – August GDP is expected to bounce back to growth This week, we will see the monthly GDP for August. The July figure saw a drop as a result of strike action and poor weather.  The markets expect a rebound in August of up to 0.3%.  Consumer-facing services and construction activity should have benefited […]


European Central Bank may pause, with a 40% chance of a hike

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey.  There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year.  Mr Bailey suggested that monetary policy is probably near the top of the cycle, similar […]


Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time

By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time The outlook for UK interest rates remains in focus, with expectations growing that we are reaching a peak. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, speaking in Cape Town, suggested that he would like to see a Table Mountain profile.  His suggestion is […]


The global focus remains on interest rates, with weakening economy

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, August 29th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy The focus across markets continues to be whether the global economy can avoid a serious downturn and achieve a soft(ish) landing. Following on from this, interest rates continue to be the number one issue.  Rates are probably close to a peak across all major markets, […]


UK Inflation is set to fall overall, with Core to rise further

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 18th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Inflation to fall overall though Core to rise further The June CPI report will be closely watched this week.  It is expected to show inflation falling to 8.3%.  This would be a welcome fall from 8.7% in May, mainly due to a fall in energy prices.  On the flip side, core inflation will […]


Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 11th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks The labour market data today was an important update on inflationary pressures. Regular pay growth rose by more than expected at 7.3% in the three months to May.  Employment growth fell and unemployment rose from 3.8% to 4%, though this may be due to economically […]


Sterling weakens despite rate expectations – higher for longer

By Greg Smith on Monday, July 3rd, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Sterling weakens despite rate expectations Following the rate hike by the Bank of England, markets anticipate Bank Rate at 6% by the year-end. Despite the expectations for rates staying higher for longer, the pound has weakened over the last couple of weeks.  This is a reflection of concerns about the outlook for economic […]


Card image cap

Card title

Some quick example text to build on the card title and make up the bulk of the card's content.

Go somewhere