By Greg Smith on Monday, June 4th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Positive PMIs support sterling Last week we saw improvements in consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI, suggesting an increase in activity. There is now close to 40% chance of an August rate hike in the UK, as positive PMIs support sterling. We started the week with an unexpected improvement in the construction PMI, showing […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 29th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling remains weak but data improving Last week provided an early indication that we may see a recovery in the second quarter after the first quarter slowdown, though sterling remains weak. Retail sales for April showed an increase of 1.6%, in a strong improvement from March’s decline. There are expectations that the data […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 21st, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling lows for the year We start the week on the back foot with sterling year lows against the dollar. Reports over the weekend suggest that some backbench Tory MPs are preparing for a snap general election in the coming months. Last week’s labour market for the three months to March, which showed […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 14th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Rate hike delayed The main event of the past week was the monetary policy update from the Bank of England. With the slowdown in recent economic data and comments from Governor Carney, it was no surprise to see the potential rate hike delayed. The focus was therefore on the monetary policy committee’s future […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 8th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling weakness continues Last week saw further falls in the value of sterling against the dollar, as the sterling weakness continued. The Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) were less positive, with manufacturing and construction showing weaker than expected growth. Services PMI provided a rebound, though it was smaller than expected. The Brexit spectre raised […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, April 30th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – sterling slides Sterling slides as recent UK economic data and comments from Governor Mark Carney suggest that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates at the next meeting on 10 May. From being a near certainty, there is now only a 20% chance that we see rates rise. Consumer price inflation, […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Resilient economy supports The UK continues to display a resilient economy with strong growth and labour markets approaching full employment. Fourth quarter GDP growth came in at 0.4%, giving overall growth of 1.7% for 2017. This is substantially higher than the estimate of just 0.5% after the Brexit referendum and provides support to sterling. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, March 19th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Eyes on Bank of England The data calendar this week will be dominated by UK inflation, employment, and retail sales. The main focus, however, is going to be on politics and central banks, with the EU Summit at the end of the week. Chancellor Hammond and Bank of England Governor Carney will attend the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, February 26th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Brexit in focus Bank of England policymakers testified on the inflation report before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday. They reinforced expectations around monetary policy that UK rates will rise further but offered little guidance on timing. UK employment growth was weaker than expected in the fourth quarter, but wage growth accelerated modestly. The […]
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