European Central Bank may pause, with a 40% chance of a hike

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey.  There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year.  Mr Bailey suggested that monetary policy is probably near the top of the cycle, similar […]


Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time

By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time The outlook for UK interest rates remains in focus, with expectations growing that we are reaching a peak. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, speaking in Cape Town, suggested that he would like to see a Table Mountain profile.  His suggestion is […]


The global focus remains on interest rates, with weakening economy

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, August 29th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy The focus across markets continues to be whether the global economy can avoid a serious downturn and achieve a soft(ish) landing. Following on from this, interest rates continue to be the number one issue.  Rates are probably close to a peak across all major markets, […]


UK Inflation is set to fall overall, with Core to rise further

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 18th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Inflation to fall overall though Core to rise further The June CPI report will be closely watched this week.  It is expected to show inflation falling to 8.3%.  This would be a welcome fall from 8.7% in May, mainly due to a fall in energy prices.  On the flip side, core inflation will […]


Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 11th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks The labour market data today was an important update on inflationary pressures. Regular pay growth rose by more than expected at 7.3% in the three months to May.  Employment growth fell and unemployment rose from 3.8% to 4%, though this may be due to economically […]


Sterling weakens despite rate expectations – higher for longer

By Greg Smith on Monday, July 3rd, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Sterling weakens despite rate expectations Following the rate hike by the Bank of England, markets anticipate Bank Rate at 6% by the year-end. Despite the expectations for rates staying higher for longer, the pound has weakened over the last couple of weeks.  This is a reflection of concerns about the outlook for economic […]


BoE hike 0.5% to 5%, with expectations of 6% this year

By Greg Smith on Tuesday, June 27th, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – BoE hike 0.5% to 5%, with expectations of 6% this year Markets were fully expecting a rise in interest rates from the Bank of England last week.  However, with the higher-than-expected inflation data and wage growth, we saw the BoE hike rates by 0.5% instead of 0.25%.  It is likely that the committee […]


Sterling hits 14-month high as BoE expected to hike again

By Greg Smith on Wednesday, June 21st, 2023

in Blog, Market Insights

GBP – Sterling hits 14-month high as BoE expected to hike again This week, attention will be on sterling with the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.  Pretty much everyone expects a further 0.25% rate hike to 4.75%.  That will make it 13 in a row.  The BoE are still clearly concerned about persistent […]


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