By Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – August GDP is expected to bounce back to growth This week, we will see the monthly GDP for August. The July figure saw a drop as a result of strike action and poor weather. The markets expect a rebound in August of up to 0.3%. Consumer-facing services and construction activity should have benefited […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Latest updates on weakening economy and inflation As we close out the third quarter, the focus remains on the future path of inflation and interest rates. Within bond markets, the rise over this quarter has been significant. With central banks close to the end of their hiking cycles, it would be typical to […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 27th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England hold rates at 5.25%, to watch data Last week, the major surprise was that the Bank of England committee voted not to hike by 5-4. Governor Bailey was the casting vote and decided on no rate hike. This follows 14 consecutive rate hikes that started at the end of 2021. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 19th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England likely to hike rates by 0.25% to 5.5% The announcement by the Bank of England will be the key focus in the UK. Most people expect the BoE to hike rates by a further 0.25% to 5.50%. This will be the 15th meeting in a row that rates have increased. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey. There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year. Mr Bailey suggested that monetary policy is probably near the top of the cycle, similar […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time The outlook for UK interest rates remains in focus, with expectations growing that we are reaching a peak. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, speaking in Cape Town, suggested that he would like to see a Table Mountain profile. His suggestion is […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, August 29th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy The focus across markets continues to be whether the global economy can avoid a serious downturn and achieve a soft(ish) landing. Following on from this, interest rates continue to be the number one issue. Rates are probably close to a peak across all major markets, […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 18th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Inflation to fall overall though Core to rise further The June CPI report will be closely watched this week. It is expected to show inflation falling to 8.3%. This would be a welcome fall from 8.7% in May, mainly due to a fall in energy prices. On the flip side, core inflation will […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, July 11th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Pay growth hits 7.3% as BoE Bailey speaks The labour market data today was an important update on inflationary pressures. Regular pay growth rose by more than expected at 7.3% in the three months to May. Employment growth fell and unemployment rose from 3.8% to 4%, though this may be due to economically […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 3rd, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling weakens despite rate expectations Following the rate hike by the Bank of England, markets anticipate Bank Rate at 6% by the year-end. Despite the expectations for rates staying higher for longer, the pound has weakened over the last couple of weeks. This is a reflection of concerns about the outlook for economic […]
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